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I finished Conference Championship week of the college football season with a record of 2-1-0 (66.7%). It’s officially bowl season…. WELCOME TO THE THUNDERDOME, BITCH!! It’s the best time of the year. Christmas, New Years, and college football bowl games!.. As always, good luck to all you degenerates and Bet Goodenough!

Season Before Bowl : 99-88-7 (52.9%)

Bowl Season Record: 11-6-1 (64.7%)

2021-2022 College Football Season Record: 110-94-8(53.9%)

Key Terms:

  • Sharp (Sharp money) – Someone who knows what they are doing in sports betting. Sharps are informed, experienced, successful sports bettors. They might be professional bettors, but that doesn’t have to be the case. Often sharps place bigger bets. When a sharp makes a bet, the sportsbook will likely take note and adjust a response line.
  • Reverse Line Movement – When a line moves away from the side receiving the majority of bets.
  • Line Moment – All the line movement I reference is based on Pinnacle Sportsbook via Wager Talk . The reason I watch Pinnacle’s line movement.

UTEP +11.5

  • 54% of the Public is on UTEP.
  • This line opened at +13.5 and has moved to +11.
  • Just 54% of the public on UTEP and the line moved down two and a half points. This is an indication of sharp money on UTEP, against a Fresno State team rolling into Albuquerque with an interim head coach.
  • Book UTEP +11.5! I like this line down to +11, and sprinkle the moneyline.

UAB +7

  • 56% of the Public is on BYU.
  • This line opened at +8 and has moved to +6.5.
  • 56% of the public on BYU and the line moved down one and a half points. This tells me there is sharp money on UAB.
  • Book UAB +7! I like this line down to +6.5, and sprinkle the moneyline.

Liberty -10

  • 68% of the Public is on Eastern Michigan.
  • This line opened at -8 and has moved to -10.
  • With 68% of the public on Eastern Michigan and the line moving up a two points, it’s an indication of sharp money on Liberty.
  • Book Liberty -10, but definitely shop around!

Tulsa -8

  • 73% of the Public is on Old Dominion.
  • This line opened at -7 and has moved to -8.
  • 73% of the public on Old Dominion and the line moved up two points. This tells me there is big sharp money on Tulsa.
  • Book Tulsa -8, but shop around!

San Diego State -3

  • 51% of the Public is on UTSA.
  • This line opened at +3 and has moved to -3.
  • With 51% of the public on UTSA and the line moving up a SIX points, it’s an indication of huge sharp money on SDSU. I might be chasing a steam move here, but San Diego is now fully healthy and not the same team that played in the Mountain West Conference Championship.
  • Book SDSU -3!

Army -6.5

  • 79% of the Public is on Army.
  • This line opened at -3 and has moved to -6.5.
  • 79% of the public on Army and the line moved up three and a half points. I’m taking a risk here, because there is no noticeable sharp action on this line.. But I really think this line should be in the double digits, and there is a ton of money on Army making this line move up 3.5 points.
  • I’m betting on the sharps being on the same side as the public, and an Army team that has much more to play for than this Mizzou squad that is rolling out a sad excuse for a run defense.
  • Book Army -6.5!

Louisville +1

  • 80% of the Public is on Air Force.
  • This line opened at +1, quickly moved to -1.5, and recently moved back to +1.
  • 80% of the public is on Air Force and the line quickly moved down 2.5 points at open. With the recent movement, it’s an indication of huge sharp money on Louisville early (moving the line down to -1.5) and then 80% of the public taking the bait and betting on Air Force, bringing the line back to +1.
  • Book Louisville +1! I think this line should be closer to -6.

West Virginia +5.5

  • 71% of the Public is on Minnesota.
  • This line opened at +5.5 and has stayed at +5.5.
  • 71% of the public on Minnesota and the line has stayed at +5.5. This is an indication of sharp money on West Virginia.
  • Book West Virginia +5.5, but shop around!

Maryland -4

  • 75% of the Public is on Maryland.
  • This line opened at +3 and has moved to -4.
  • With 75% of the public on Maryland and the line moving down a 7 points, it’s an indication of the public following the huge sharp money on Maryland.
  • This Virginia Tech team is currently in shambles, with an interim Head Coach and multiple starting players out via transfer portal and NFL draft prep. I will bet against any team loosing this much and playing against a team that is full strength.
  • Book Maryland -4, but definitely shop around!

North Carolina -10

  • 65% of the Public is on North Carolina.
  • This line opened at -6 and has moved to -11.
  • With 65% of the public on North Carolina and the line moving up a 5 points, it’s an indication of the public following the huge sharp money on North Carolina.
  • Book North Carolina -10! I like this line up to -10.5

Purdue +7.5

  • 62% of the Public is on Tennessee.
  • line opened at -3 and has moved to +7.5.
  • This major line move movement is because Purdue’s best offensive and defensive player is sitting out for the NFL draft. George Karlaftis(DE) is a projected top 10 pick and David Bell (WR) is one of the top wide receivers in the 2022 NFL Draft. With that much talent sitting out it explains why the public loves Tennessee, but this line smells very fishy…..
  • I think this Purdue team is still better than a Volunteer team that is in an incredibly overrated conference this year.
  • Book Purdue +7.5!

Pitt +3.5

  • 64% of the Public is on Michigan State.
  • This line opened at -4.5 and has moved to +3.5.
  • This major line move movement is because Pitt’s starting QB, Kenny Pickett is sitting out for the 2022 NFL Draft.
  • The reason I’m taking Pitt is because, this Michigan State Secondary is ranked in the bottom 10 in college football and I have watched them get diced up all year in the Big 10. Even if Pitt’s backup QB is mediocre, I still think he lights up this secondary. Look for a shootout here!
  • Book Pitt +3.5!

Central Michigan +7

  • 52% of the Public is on Central Michigan.
  • This line opened at +7 and has moved to +6.5.
  • 52% of the public is on Central Michigan and the line moved down a half point, it’s an indication of sharp money on Central Michigan.
  • Book Central Michigan +7! I like this line down to +6.5, but shop around.

Cincinnati +13.5

  • 66% of the Public is on Alabama.
  • This line opened at +14 and has moved to +13.5.
  • 66% of the public is on Alabama and the line moved down a half point, it’s an indication of sharp money on Cincinnati.
  • Book the Bearcats +13.5! Sprinkle the moneyline..

With the remaining games, I will have a different betting strategy. Most of the remaining games are between good teams that just happen to have multiple opt-outs… These opt-outs make it almost impossible to spot the sharp money. So these remaining bets are based solely on my opinion.

Iowa +3.5

  • This Iowa Defense is ELITE. I believe they will still force turnovers against this Kentucky offense and the winner of the turnover battle will win this game.

Utah +4.5

  • Utah is one of the hottest teams in college football right now and their physical play-style is similar to Oregon, but much better. This style of play has been Ohio State’s Kryptonite this season and I don’t see it changing in this game, with a couple of pivotal opt-outs on the offensive and defensive lines. I believe this high scoring/ finesse Ohio State team will get manhandled at the line of scrimmage, once again.

Baylor +1

  • This game will come down to one thing. Will this very solid Baylor defense be able to stop the high flying offense led by pre-season Heisman favorite, Matt Corral. I think Baylor has the talent on defense to match this offense and get the win here. Look for a lower scoring game than “experts” think.

Late Additions

  • Wisconsin -7

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