Photo Credit: oddsshark.com

In week 3 of the college football season, I won 63.6% of my bets! This week I’m laying a lot of points with teams I have bet against in previous weeks, but for good reason. Lets see if we can keep this heater going this week! As always, good luck to all you degenerates and Bet Goodenough!

Season Before Week 4: 31-18-5 (63.3%)

Week 4: 8-3-0 (73%)

Season: 39-21-5 (65%)

Key Terms:

  • Sharp (Sharp money) – Someone who knows what they are doing in sports betting. Sharps are informed, experienced, successful sports bettors. They might be professional bettors, but that doesn’t have to be the case. Often sharps place bigger bets. When a sharp makes a bet, the sportsbook will likely take note and adjust a response line.
  • Reverse Line Movement – When a line moves away from the side receiving the majority of bets.
  • 72% of the Public is on the Notre Dame.
  • The line has moved from 0 to 6.
  • With 72% of the public on Notre Dame and the line moving from 0 to 6, it tells me there is HUGE sharp money on Wisconsin.
  • I would book this line down to -6.5, but definitely shop around!
  • 66% of the Public is on Louisville.
  • The line has moved from 2.5 to 1.5.
  • This line moving from 2.5 to 1.5 in favor of Louisville, with 66% of the public on Louisville, tells me there is a good amount of sharp money on Florida St here.
  • Book this at +2!

Illinois +11

  • 77% of the Public is on Pudue.
  • The line has moved from 10.5 to 11.
  • This line has moved up a half point in Illinois favor with 77% of the public on Purdue. With the line moving just a half point its an indication there is still a a good amount of big money on Illinois, suppressing the line movement to a half point.
  • Book the Illini +11!

Florida -18

  • 65% of the Public is on Tennessee .
  • The line opened at 14.5 and has moved to 19, indicating heavy sharp action on Florida.
  • Lay the points with Florida and sweat this one out.
  • 82% of the Public is on MSU.
  • The line has moved from +5 to -5, a 10 point swing… indicating MAJOR sharp money on MSU for the second week in a row.
  • I hate Michigan St as much as the next University of Michigan fan, but I’m setting bias aside and following money to win money.
  • Book this line at -5!

Ohio St -49 (Taking off the betting Card)

  • 59% of the Public is on Akron.
  • The line has moved from 48.5 to 49.5 in favor of Akron, indicating some sharp action on Ohio St.
  • I think this will be a game where Ohio State gains some confidence and racks up 60+ points in the process.
  • Lay the 49 points and watch a different game.

Georgia Tech +13

  • 83% of the Public is on North Carolina.
  • This line has moved from 13.5 to 12.5 in favor of UNC with 83% of the public on them. This is another big indicator of sharp money on GT.
  • Fade the public here and book the Yellow Jackets at +13, I would book this down to +12.5.

Louisiana-Monroe +24

  • 83% of the Public is on Troy.
  • The line has moved from 24.5 to 24, a strong indication of sharp money on ULM.
  • Book this line at +24, and take deep breaths if you are watching.

Western Kentucky +10

  • 66% of the Public is on WKU.
  • The line has moved from +18.5 to +9. This tells me there is HUGE sharp money on WKU along with the public, causing sportsbooks to drastically drop the line in favor of Indiana.
  • Book WKU at +10! I would also take this line down to +9.

Arizona State -14

  • 72% of the Public is on Colorado.
  • This line opened at 14 and shortly after moved up to 23.5, then slowly moved back down to 14. This is a major indication of early sharp money and the public taking the bait.
  • Book ASU -14!

Late Additions

  • BGSU +31 – 74% of the public is on Minnesota. The line has stayed steady around 31 all week and with 74% of the bets on Minnesota, its an indication there is sharp money holding this line at 31.
  • North Texas +11 – 76% of the public bets are on Louisiana Tech. The line has moved from 12.5 to 11 in favor of LT, this reverse line movement is an indication of sharp money on North Texas.

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