Photo Credit: oddsshark.com

In week 4 of the college football season, I won 73% of my bets! This week we have a couple games which the sharp money is on the same side as the public. We also have a couple games with MAJOR reverse line movement. Lets keep this College Football heater rolling!! As always, good luck to all you degenerates and Bet Goodenough!

Season Before Week 4: 31-18-5 (63.3%)

Week 5: 10-8-0 (55.5%)

Season After Week 5: 41-26-5 (61.2%)

Key Terms:

  • Sharp (Sharp money) – Someone who knows what they are doing in sports betting. Sharps are informed, experienced, successful sports bettors. They might be professional bettors, but that doesn’t have to be the case. Often sharps place bigger bets. When a sharp makes a bet, the sportsbook will likely take note and adjust a response line.
  • Reverse Line Movement – When a line moves away from the side receiving the majority of bets.
  • 54% of the Public is on the Virginia.
  • The line moved from 2.5 to 6 early in the week, and back down to 3.5 throughout the week.
  • With this line shooting up to 6 early in the week, its an indicator of big sharp action early. The line moving back down to 3.5 throughout the week tells me the public took the bait.
  • Book the Hurricanes at -4.
  • 60% of the Public is on Iowa.
  • The line has moved from 4.5 to 3.
  • This line moving from 4.5 to 3 in favor of Maryland, with 60% of the public on Iowa, tells me there is a good amount of sharp money on Maryland.
  • Book this at +3!
  • 53% of the Public is on Minnesota.
  • The line has moved from +2 (Purdue) to -3 (Purdue).
  • Early in the week 66% of the public was on Minnesota and the line was at -2.5(Purdue). This tells me there was a good amount of sharp money on Purdue shortly after this line opened.
  • Book the Boilermakers -3!

Charlotte +13

  • 51% of the Public is on Charlotte .
  • The line opened at 14 and has moved to 11.
  • With 51% of the public on Charlotte and the line moving 3 points, It’s easy to spot where most of the big money is going in this game. Charlotte.
  • Book the 49ers at +13. I’d also take this line at +11.

Temple +12

  • 80% of the Public is on Memphis.
  • The line opened at 12.5 and has moved down to 11.5.
  • We have some textbook reverse line movement here with 80% of the public on Memphis and this line moving down in favor of Memphis. A strong indication of sharp money on Temple… I don’t understand it either, but stay disciplined and follow the god damn money!
  • Book this line at +12! I like this line down to +11.5.

Cincinnati -1

  • 67% of the Public is on Syracuse.
  • This line has moved from -4 to -5.5 with 83% of the public on Syracuse. This is another big indicator of sharp money on FSU.
  • Book the Seminoles down to -5 and don’t watch for the sake of your health.
  • 62% of the Public is on Rutgers.
  • The line has moved from +16.5 to +15.5.
  • There is no sharp action on this game. I’m placing this bet because I think Rutgers is more physical on the OL and DL, than Ohio State has been so far this season. The Rutgers physical offense is a recipe for disaster for an Ohio State defense that as struggled against the run and the pass against lesser competition.
  • Book this line at +16! Sprinkle some on the moneyline…

Miami(OH) -1

  • 79% of the Public is on Central Michigan.
  • The line has moved from -0.5 to -1. This half point reverse line movement, tells me there is some sharp money on Miami(OH).
  • Book the RedHawks -1.
  • 76% of the Public is on Ark St.
  • This line opened at +18.5 and is now at +2.
  • This line moving 16.5 points tells me there is HUGE sharp money on Arkansas St with the public.
  • Book the Red Wolves +3!

Washington St. +7.5

  • 79% of the Public is on Cal.
  • This line has stayed stagnant at 7.5 all week.
  • With 79% of the public on Cal and the line not moving, it tells me there is some sharp money on Washington St. holding this line down.
  • Book WSU at +7.5! Shop around.

Kentucky +9

  • 72% of the Public is on Florida.
  • The line has moved from +9 to +8.
  • With 72% of the public on Florida and the line moving down, its an indication of sharp action on Kentucky.
  • Book Kentucky +9! I would also take this line down to +8.
  • 90% of the Public is on BC.
  • The line has moved from 14.5 to 15.
  • With 90% of the public on BC and the line moving up, we have very nice reverse line movement. This tells me there is BIG sharp money on Clemson, forcing sportsbooks to move the line in that direction.
  • Book Clemson at -15!
  • 70% of the Public is on Michigan St.
  • The line has moved from 15.5 to 11.
  • Moving 4.5 points in the opposite direction of the public favorite in MSU (Reverse line movement), it’s an indication of strong sharp money on WKU.
  • Book WKU at +13! I would also take this line down to +11.5, but shop around.

Nebraska -10

  • 71% of the Public is on Nebraska.
  • The line has moved from -8 to -12.
  • With this line moving 4 points with the public, it tells me there is big money on the Cornhuskers along with the public.
  • Book Nebraska at -10! I would also take this line down to -12.

Penn St. -10

  • 72% of the Public is on Penn St.
  • This line has moved from 6.5 to 13.
  • With this line moving 6.5 points with the public favorite, its an indication the big sharp money is with the public here.
  • Book Penn St. at -10! I would also take this line down to -12.5. Shop around.

Oregon St. -2

  • 76% of the Public is on Oregon State
  • The line has moved from +3 to -2.
  • With this line moving a full 5 points, it tells me the big money on Oregon State with the public.
  • Book Oregon State at -2!

Late Additions

  • AUBURN +4 : 66% of the public is on LSU. This line opened at 6.5 and has moved down to 3. Very strong reverse line movement here indicating BIG sharp money on Auburn. This will be a fun game to watch!

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