Photo Credit: nfldraftdiamonds.com

I finished week 6 of the college football season with a record of 3-7-1 (30%). My first rough week with college football betting this year and turned the boat in the wrong direction. Note to self, if you love your bets for the week consider it a sign from the gambling gods that you are about to lose money.. Earlier this week, I noticed Action Network had a quite a few opening lines that were very suspect. So I dug around and found a more reliable source for opening lines and line movement. Vegas Insider, a trusted source for many veteran sports gamblers.. Week 7 is a NEW week and I put in some extra time to turn this ship back in the right direction! As always, good luck to all you degenerates and Bet Goodenough!

Season Before Week 7: 44-33-6 (57.1%)

Week 7: 5-9-0 (35.7%)

Season After Week 7: 49-42-6 (53.8%)

Key Terms:

  • Sharp (Sharp money) – Someone who knows what they are doing in sports betting. Sharps are informed, experienced, successful sports bettors. They might be professional bettors, but that doesn’t have to be the case. Often sharps place bigger bets. When a sharp makes a bet, the sportsbook will likely take note and adjust a response line.
  • Reverse Line Movement – When a line moves away from the side receiving the majority of bets.

Memphis -10.5

  • 51% of the Public is on the Navy.
  • This line opened at -9 and is now at -11
  • Early in the week over 60% of the public was on Navy and this line was still at -11. This tells me there was early sharp money on Memphis.
  • Book Memphis at -10.5! I like this line up to -11.
  • 61% of the public is on the Over
  • This line has moved from 53.5 to 49.5
  • With 61% of the public on the over and the line moving down 4 points, it’s an indication of huge money on the Under.
  • Book the Under 49.5!
  • 85% of the Public is on Texas A&M.
  • The line has moved from +10 to +9.
  • This line moving from +10 to +9 with 85% of the public on Texas A&M, tells me there is sharp money on Missouri.
  • Book this at +10! I like this line down to +9.
  • 63% of the Public is on Ball St.
  • The line opened at +3 and is now at +1.
  • Textbook reverse line movement here! With 63% of the public on Ball St and that line moving from -3 to -1, it tells me there is a good amount of sharp money on EMU.
  • Book EMU at +2! I also like this down to +1.
  • 60% of the Public is on Bowling Green.
  • This line opened at -8 and is now at -9.
  • With 60% of the public betting on Bowling Green and the sportsbooks giving them 1.5 more points, it’s an indication of sharp money on NIU.
  • Book this line at -9! I like this line up to -9.5, but shop around.

Colorado -6

  • 93% of the Public is on Texas Tech.
  • This line opened at +17, then quickly moved to +15, and is now at +16.5.
  • This is the classic, early sharp money moving the line down and the public taking the bait. With 93% of the public on Texas Tech and this line staying under +17, it’s an indication there is HUGE sharp money on Kansas.
  • Book the JayHawks +17! I like this line down to +16.5, but shop around.

Vanderbilt +18.5

  • 59% of the Public is on South Carolina.
  • The line has moved from +20 to +18.5.
  • Over 60% of the public was on South Carolina earlier this week and this line was still at 18.5. This is an indication of sharp money on Vanderbilt keeping this line down.
  • Book this line at +18.5!

UNLV +7

  • 75% of the Public is on Utah St.
  • The line has moved from +9 to +7.
  • With 75% of the public on Utah St. and this line moving 2 points in the opposite direction, its an indicator of big sharp money on UNLV causing the reverse line movement.
  • Book UNLV at +7.
  • 80% of the Public is on Alabama.
  • This line opened at +21, quickly moved to +17.5, and is now +17.
  • Betting against Bama is scary, but a primetime game in Stark-vegas makes me more comfortable. The line moving down 3.5 points with 80% of the public on Bama, it tells me there was HUGE sharp money on the Bulldogs here.
  • Book the Bulldogs +17!
  • 77% of the Public is on UCLA.
  • This line has moved from PK to -2
  • With 77% of the public on UCLA and the line moving in the opposite direction, it’s a big indicator of sharp money on Washington.
  • Book Washington -1! I like this line down to -2
  • 62% of the Public is on UTEP.
  • This line opened at -7, quickly moved to -9, and is now -6.5.
  • With this line moving up 2 points shortly after it opened and 62% of the public on UTEP, it tells me there was early sharp money on LA Tech here.
  • Book La Tech at -6.5. I like this line up to -7.

Utah +1

  • 61% of the Public is on Arizona State.
  • This line has moved from +2 to -1, and back to +1.
  • With 61% of the public on Arizona State and the line moving in the opposite direction early, it’s a big indicator of sharp money on Utah.
  • Book the Utes at +1! I like this line down to -1.
  • 82% of the Public is on Hawaii.
  • This line has moved from +16 to +14
  • With 82% of the public on Nevada and the line moving in the opposite direction, it’s a big indicator of sharp money on Hawaii.
  • Book the Rainbow Warriors +14.5!

Late Additions

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.