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Hello Degenerates! As you can see below last week was kind to us! It wasn’t perfect (Jamarr Chase sigh) but, still able to have a solid profit using the plays we talked about last week. The Bucs stack was great, Sanders was an outstanding pivot, and 100% Sony Michel worked out well. Here’s hoping for a great week this week!
- Kansas City- This one gets me. On one hand, the Chiefs have been brutal all season. On the other hand, they’re facing the one team they erupted against this year. I know the Raiders are a bit of a laughing stock at times but, there is no way they play single high safety vs. the Chiefs again right? I would like to think so. However, since it is the Raiders I’ll hedge a bit and get to a Patrick Mahomes stack or two. Travis Kelce is fine but, my bigger interest lies in Tyreek Hill who has the ability to break the slate every week. My favorite secondary player to stack with Mahomes would be Byron Pringle who has played 80 percent of the snaps the past two weeks and seems to have leaped Mecole Hardman on the depth chart.
- Runbacks- Not much to see here. The Chiefs defense has been balling out lately and the Raiders are finally in a funk. Josh Jacobs looks solid, especially if Jalen Ricard were to miss again. Last week Jacobs soaked up 9 targets and the new passing game usage (especially with Drake injured) should boost his floor. Hunter Renfrow is also always a solid if not unspectacular option.
- Tampa Bay- This game easily has the highest total and therefore should be popular. If you play stacks from this game, get different elsewhere. Leonard Fournette actually looks to be more popular than Tom Brady stacks so, I’ll simply put my money on Brady instead. Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Gronk all look great. Godwin easily looks the best now that he is playing more in the slot(and given the Bills play mostly zone defense) but, Evans stands out to me as great leverage. His floor is low but, in tournaments the upside is high. I’ll just throw out that Breshad Perriman ran 46 routes on 51 drop backs last week so, he isn’t the craziest dart throw.
- Runbacks- I’ll just mention that the Bills are also a great stack as well. They pass at the highest rate in the NFL and you can throw out last week’s wind storm game. Josh Allen to Stefon Diggs is good old reliable but, throwing a dart on any Buffalo pass catcher is fine. My preference is Cole Beasley who should benefit from the Bucs propensity to play zone defense and Beasley should be able to find some holes here.
- LA Chargers- There’s a lot to still unpack here due to Covid issues but, I like this game at the moment. Justin Herbert vs. the Giants is a great spot obviously, and with Keenan Allen out, that opens up a 27 percent target share. Mike Williams is the obvious pair up but, when it comes to choosing between Allen’s replacement I tend to side more with Josh Palmer over Jaylen Guyton. Palmer is a rookie who had an impressive preseason and he seems more to be Allen’s direct backup while Guyton plays a more gadget play type of role. Jared Cook is also a solid cheap tight end play here. Austin Ekeler can be stacked with Herbert given his passing role but, there’s another back I like more in that price range.
- Dallas- Mike McCarthy being a bozo and calling out the Team and guaranteeing a victory doesn’t give me as much confidence here but, I think Dallas is relatively cheap, low-owned, and carries a solid Vegas total. Great combo here. The Team defense has been a lot better lately but, they’ve also faced some scrubs along the way. Dak Prescott below 7k is very appealing and Ceedee Lamb and Amari Cooper look great here. Cooper is another week removed from covid and Ceedee is now running a lot more routes out of the slot since Michael Gallup returned, and I love guys that run routes from the slot given the passes are more high percentage and in PPR scoring points rack up quickly.
- Runbacks- Several options here. Antonio Gibson will be popular, especially if McKissic is out again but, it makes sense. He’s just way too cheap for his massive role. Terry Mclaurin has been eerily quiet lately but, his 30% target share is still great and while Dallas has a more respectable defense this year, Treyvon Diggs has been known to gamble more often than not, which could lead to some big Terry plays. Ricky Seals Jones is a fine cheap tight end punt play that should see most of the tight end routes with Logan Thomas lost for the year.
- Seattle- This one is just a gut feeling. Seattle may run the most unappealing offense in the NFL given their personnel. However, this is a bet on talent. Russel Wilson is another week removed from the finger issue, and I really like DK Metcalf this week vs. the hapless Texans. Last week Metcalf didn’t get there but, still saw 134 air yards and was tackled on the one-yard line. He’s getting close to a breakout. Tyler Lockett tends to get more of the deep balls and he makes for a fine option as well although I prefer Metcalf at lesser ownership.
- Runbacks- Pass
Just the same as last week I will mention a few runningback plays I like if I did not mention them above. Last week all four backs that were highlighted here scored at least 17 points! I will list the backs in order based on salary.
- Alvin Kamara- There’s a narrative that Taysom Hill destroys Kamara. It’s true, Taysom doesn’t target Kamara like Drew Brees did, at least based on the sample we have. However, during that sample New Orleans had players like Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders on their team. Now they have Lil’Jordan Humphrey. Kamara is going to be the engine of this offense vs. one of the worst defenses I have ever seen. He has been practicing in full so that’s good (Dalvin Cook sure looked good coming off injury). Mark Ingram and Tony Jones both look to be out for this game. Give me all of the Kamara and hope he is the one that scores the tuddies over a popular Taysom (who also has a dismantled finger).
- Javonte Williams- Playing the Lions? Okay sign me up. This dude is unbelievable. It isn’t often I watch a game and am blown away by a runningbacks talent but, watching Javonte vs. the Chiefs, you can tell this kid is built different as the kids say. Melvin Gordon returning could put a wrench in things (go away Melvin you’re a free agent, rest up buddy). However, I think Javonte has earned more of the work regardless and at least if Melvin returns it could reduce his ownership.
- James Robinson- Urban Meyer is incredible. Watching his press conferences is like watching an episode of “The Office.” So last week James fumbled and he was benched for 20 consecutive plays. Carlos Hyde then fumbled and played the next series. When asked for a reason why, Urban’s response was “I don’t know.” On Wednesday, rookie quarterback Trevor Lawerence called Robinson’s benching inexcusable and that they needed their best weapon on the field more. What a joke. With everything swirling around this dude it should keep ownership way down and I think there could be a severe over-correction coming. Would it shock you for Urban to just say, “screw it” and play Robinson every play? I know I wouldn’t and Robinson did have a three game stretch where he averaged 22 points per game. I’ll take the risk vs. a mediocre defense.
- Jeff Wilson- He’s already burned us once but, we can take the plunge here again if you need the salary. I worry about Jamychal Hasty taking some work and if Deebo Samuel plays he can play some runningback too. If Deebo is out the worry becomes whether or not the Niners can even move the ball in general. Wilson hasn’t looked great this year coming off of a serious knee injury so, this play is only for those that really need a cheap runningback and you love the rest of your line
Wide Receiver One Offs:
Most of the plays here I have already mentioned from my stacks. However, there are a few more plays that have huge upsides that I would like to touch on that could win you a tournament.
- Jamarr Chase- Here we go again. If Chase catches that deep pass last week the narrative on him this week is totally changed. The Niners pass defense is soft so, that is a plus. Tee Higgins also being banged up helps Chase. The concern lies in Joe Burrow’s throwing hand and if he can get the ball to Chase. I worry that this game becomes a bit of a slop fest with all the injuries but, I’ll still take some Chase at low ownership and hope he brought his stick’em.
- Brandon Aiyuk- Everyone was head over heels over this guy last week? What happened? Sure he disappointed and now everyone wants to get off him so, naturally I’m hopping on here for the rebound at low ownership. If Deebo plays I am less interested but, if he is out give me lots of Aiyuk who will still be the wide receiver one here.
- Donovan Peoples-Jones- The Ravens give up the most deep passes in the entire NFL. When asked why he went for two last week, John Harbaugh said, “We ran out of cornerbacks.” Yikes.
I’ll take some shots here on Donovan and I think Jarvis Landry is a fine play too. The Ravens should sell out to stop the run and I’m hoping Baker can miraculously find his mojo coming off the bye week.
The biggest edge I had last week was paying up for tight end and fading all the Foster Moreau chalk. This week, I like the idea of finding my value more at tight end with some of the players we talked about in our stacks. In addition to those players there is one other guy I am in love with this week.
- Austin Hooper- The Ravens give up tons of yards to tight ends and the Browns target their tight ends more than any other team in the league (31 percent). The problem has been that they have three viable tight ends. This week there is no Harrison Bryant. No David Njoku. This is Hooper’s role 100 percent. I’ll be loading up on Austin this week vs. this secondary.