Photo Credit: Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images
Hello Degenerates! Good to be back with you all and looking forward to another exciting week of NFL DFS! Last week I wasn’t able to get out a DFS article but, as you can see the results were fairly solid. My main tournament lineup ended up a little chalky but, across eight lineups I did end up playing every single player that was in the 100k to first tournament, just didn’t have the right combination of them in the same lineup. Hopefully this week we can narrow it down and hit a big one! (Keep in mind I am writing this article on Thursday evening so, lots of covid news could change things)
- LA Rams – Pretty simple one here. Playing in a dome? Check. Playing against a depleted secondary that is a pass funnel defense? Check. Easy weapons to identify and stack with? Check. Love Matthew Stafford in a dome here with a high team total. Cooper Kupp (I may have 100%) is hands down the best play on the slate from a raw points perspective and pairing with Odell Beckham, Van Jefferson, or Tyler Higbee makes sense. If I’m playing Stafford I’ll be sure to stack him with at least two pass catchers since if Stafford makes it to his ceiling game it will be through passing, not rushing.
- Runbacks – This is a tough spot. I have no problems if you feel strongly about Justin Jefferson, especially if Adam Thielan is out. With Dalvin Cook being ruled out I think that while Alexander Mattison has been priced up, he still makes for the best runback since he sees all of Dalvin’s workload when he is out, at least based on past scenarios.
- LA Chargers – The only fear in this one is if the game gets out of hand, which reduces the ceilings of Justin Herbert and company. The Vegas total looks great and Keenan Allen looks like a very safe floor play here. Mike Williams is worth a tournament shot here but, the biggest news is Austin Ekeler. As of this writing he appears to be out. On a fantasy show that Ekeler was a part of he even said himself that you should go pick up Justin Jackson. Straight from the source people, that’s why you come here for the inside scoop! If this is the case I’ll play 100% Jackson at his price and take my chances elsewhere. He’s got a great matchup, great offense, and a secure role if Ekeler is out. Love it. Jared Cook is also a candidate to soak up some extra check down looks that would normally go to Ekeler.
- Runbacks – Here is where I would normally suggest Brandin Cooks but, with him having covid I fear there just aren’t any great, high upside options here to pick from.
- Bal/Cin – I like both sides of this game so, I will include them together. First, I’m a believer in Tyler Huntley. He’s got the great rushing upside, and quite frankly has looked better as a passer than Lamar. If I’m playing Huntley I still only prefer single stacking here with either Marquise Brown or, Mark Andrews. Andrews looks amazing after last weeks explosion but, I think it’s easy to overlook the fact that Brown saw 14 targets last week. All it takes is for him to break a couple and get loose to have a huge day here versus a mediocre defense. On the other side I prefer to double stack Joe Burrow since he isn’t a rushing QB. Jamarr Chase is one of my favorite plays versus a depleted secondary that has given up more 20+ yard pass plays than any team in the league. Tee Higgins offers plenty of safety compared to Chase, and I think CJ Uzomah makes for a great high-risk, high-reward tight end punt play.
- Philadelphia Eagles – I would say that Jalen Hurts has looked the part of franchise QB lately and there isn’t anything about this matchup that scares me. I am also not afraid to run Hurts naked, meaning not play him with any of his pass catchers. My worry here is that the Giants offer nothing on the other side of this game and the Eagles just pound away to a nice 13 to 3 win. If you want to pair Hurts with a pass catcher, Dallas Goedert is certainly your guy.
As it stands now there are two incredible values that I am going to be rolling with a lot. They may be a bit chalky but, Justin Jackson and Ronald Jones look like such incredible plays to me that I may just hitch my wagons to them and shake it up elsewhere. Per usual, I will start with the highest priced guys and work my way down.
- Alexander Mattison- Already mentioned him above as a possible runback for Rams stacks.
- Josh Jacobs- I think it has taken a long time for the fantasy community to realize this guy has become a pass catching back. Jacobs gets a bad rap because he spent so much of his career as a two-down back but, since Kenyan Drake went down, Jacobs has received 19 targets in his last three games. This helps boost his floor and I think he makes for a fine pivot from the guy below.
- James Robinson- I’ll maybe have a couple lineups with James but, I’m mostly fading the very popular Robinson. He certainly checks all the boxes of a great play, and facing the Jets is a smash spot. However, trusting any Jags player as a can’t miss is just foolish. I’ll hedge just a bit but I’ll mostly look to change things up here.
- Clyde Edwards-Helaire- Now here’s a spot I love. Kansas City may be without their two top weapons (that’s what I’m assuming of this writing). I think they will look to pound the rock at home versus a Steelers team that has been getting absolutely gashed lately. Even without their two top weapons, I’ll take the back paired with Patrick Mahomes over the back paired with Trevor Lawerence all day. Giddyup.
- David Montgomery- He may be somewhat popular but, I like Montgomery. He is way too cheap for a featured back that is guaranteed 20 looks in both the run and pass game combined. Not to mention the Seahawks give up the most RB pass receptions in the NFL which helps raise the floor and ceiling of Montgomery. The only thing holding him back is Matt Nagy.
- Ronald Jones- Love this guy. Elite run-blocking vs. an average defense. Carolina’s offense also figures to be so putrid that Tampa may have the ball 80% of this game. There are certainly risks, Jones could fumble the first carry and be benched the rest of the game. I have a lot of faith though that doesn’t happen. First, I’m surprised backup Keyshawn Vaughn wasn’t on the receiving end of that Tom Brady Ipad chuck. Tom spent a large majority of his time on the field hurling insults at this guy for blown assignments. Leveon Bell could take some work but, he just showed up Wednesday after admitting he was ready to become a boxer. So, I think it’s safe to project Jones for massive work in a game the Bucs should still control. I’ll be near 100% here.
- Justin Jackson- Quick reminder to play a ton of Jackson if Ekeler is out.
Wide Receiver One Offs:
Per usual, I have already mentioned most of my favorite pass-catchers above with my stacks. In fact all of the high priced guys I liked have already been mentioned. Here are a few of my other favorites and thoughts on some potential chalk.
- Antonio Brown – He’s going to be insanely popular and it makes sense. I will be under the field however (maybe only one or two lineups for me). Here is why. I love Ronald Jones and these two aren’t the best correlation. I also worry about Brown’s stamina after being out for so long. I also worry that he looked so good because other teams had to focus on Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. Now he will be the focal point of Stephon Gilmore and company. Of course Brown should see a massive target share and projects tremendously. I just don’t think Tampa is going to pass that much vs. the Panthers and I’m simply siding with the Ronald Jones side of this. And the more I type this the crazier I feel like I am lol.
- Courtland Sutton – How the mighty have fallen. The talent is still there and he is crazy cheap. The matchup is certainly great as well. This play isn’t for the faint of heart, and it’s a bit of a gamble on Drew Lock. I am hoping that Lock will air it out more and take more risks than his predecessor, and that should benefit Sutton. Sutton did receive 5 of his 7 targets last week after Lock took over so, we will see if that chemistry narrative reigns true here or not.
- Mecole Hardman/Byron Pringle – I lump these two together as great plays assuming Hill and Kelce are out. My preferred is Hardman. Mecole is more of the direct backup to Hill and the Chiefs seem to scheme more plays for Hardman than Pringle. The problem for Hardman has just been opportunity. However, if Hill is out the Chiefs won’t have much of a choice but to play the talented but, inconsistent player. I still believe in Mahome’s magic and he can make it happen here versus an overrated Steeler defense.
As with receiver, I have mentioned most of the tight ends I like. There is however one more guy I just have to mention here…
- Kyle Pitts – This is another guy that gets a bad rap from the fantasy community. Has he been a bust? I guess. The only real thing missing from Pitts has been the touchdowns because he is well on his way to a 1,000 yard season. 20 targets the last three games and he gets to square off vs. a hardly intimidating Lions defense. Sign me up for all of the Kyle Pitts this week. No doubt about it, I’m ready to get hurt again.