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Well last week in NFL DFS was pretty simple. Play Bengals stacks or lose. Unfortunately we were slightly more on the losing end of that exchange but, at least we weren’t totally shut out in last weeks DFS slate.
As we look ahead to this upcoming week I can honestly say I am ready for the playoff slates. These massive slates at the end of the year are quite daunting but, hopefully we can navigate through the mess and come out with the correct recipe for success!
- Arizona / Dallas – Highest game total of the week and I love both ends of this game. Dak Prescott figures to be popular but, how you stack him up makes the stack tricky and you can find ways to differentiate yourself. Ceedee Lamb is my favorite here even though he is the most expensive, he is projected for half the ownership of Amari Cooper and Ceedee feels like he is ready to erupt, especially with his uptick in routes run from the slot position. Michael Gallup is a fantastic tournament play that might give you a zero but, could also get you 20+ in a great game environment. Kyler Murray figures to be less popular given the Cardinals recent struggles but, his upside is even higher than Dak. The Dallas defense has certainly been amazing but, it’s still a gambling defense that can get burned. I love Christian Kirk to break out a big one on the oft gambling Treyvon Diggs, and Zach Ertz is probably my favorite point per dollar tight end on the slate.
- LA Rams / Baltimore – Another game I will look to stack on both ends here. Matthew Stafford is in an obvious smash spot versus this practice squad secondary but, there’s still some risk in this outdoor game. Cooper Kupp is never a bad option but, I think I am only going to play him in Stafford stacks. Even if Kupp drops 30 points here he won’t be an absolute must-have option at his price. Van Jefferson and Tyler Higbee are two other cheap options that I love and will be less popular than Odell Beckham.
- Runbacks – Tyler Huntley figures to draw the start here and he is a great cheap option with massive upside. The obvious stack options here are Mark Andrews who is absolutely en fuego and Marquise Brown as a cheaper more contrarian option.
- Trey Lance – Far far far too cheap. I won’t play him in the millimaker but, in some of my 3 dollar entries I will. If you’re playing a 50/50 cash game Lance is a must play for me at his price and safe floor thanks to his rushing upside. You can run him with no other Niners or, George Kittle since young quarterbacks tend to seek out their tight end safety blankets more often than more experienced signal callers.
My game plan here is to live in the middle and scatter shot the range. I’ll try to avoid super popular players such as David Montgomery or Johnathan Taylor and see how it works out for us!
- Ronald Jones – As always this guy is one missed block away from being outright benched but, against the Jets he could just as easily break off an 80 yard touchdown on his way to a 200 yard day. The Jets are the worst defense I’ve ever seen and if Duke Johnson can basically just walk out of retirement and run for 130 yards, Jones can do it too.
- Rashaad Penny – We got some major weather concerns here which should lead to massive volume for a home back that is favored for a team that wants to run the ball. 5% projected ownership? I’ll take that gamble all day.
- Eli Mitchell – I might love this guy more than Kyle Shannahan and that is saying something. If Mithcell is cleared to play I have no doubts that Shanny will hand Mitchell the vast amount of carries in a must win game. Once again we have a home back that is a big favorite for a team that wants to run. Not to mention that Mitchell is a direct pivot from a popular Lance. Let’s make it happen Shanny.
- Darrell Williams – Not a home back but, a favored back in a high powered offense. The Bengals linebacking core is decimated and the Chiefs have no problem playing a defense and run the ball type of game. Not to mention in the games Darrell has started he has received at minimum four targets in all those games. Love it. Direct pivot off Mahomes stacks.
- Sony Michel – Popular but, got to love him. With Henderson out and Akers still not back, Michel figures to see close to 100% of the snaps that is sub 6k. I have no problem getting here if the rest of your lineup is a little wonky.
- Devin Singletary – Over the last two weeks Singletary has played 80 percent of the snaps and the Bills seem to be trying to commit more to the run. In a game that figures to see some snow, and a huge favorite, this seems like a great spot for the Bills to keep working on their run game.
Wide Receiver One Offs:
Most of my favorite plays have already been mentioned above in my stacks. Here are a few others that stand out to me.
- Tyreek Hill – Feels like a let down spot for the Bengals. I’m mostly staying away from this game but, I think Hill makes for a good contrarian spot if you want to get off Kupp and still unlock the same upside.
- Keenan Allen – Feels like a big bounceback game for the Chargers here, Keenan offers tons of safety in a PPR scoring, and I love him as a direct pivot from a more popular AJ Brown.
- Antonio Brown – Still way too cheap, let’s see if he plays here. If he does, AB has about 600k reasons for him to ball out based on incentives, and I’m sure he will remind Brady of this often. The Jets are a hapless opponent.
- Courtland Sutton – I know. Last week I liked Sutton and the game didn’t turn into a shootout. This game should force the Broncos to throw more and if Sutton is cleared, I think Drew Lock will at least lock onto him with Jerry Jeudy already ruled out.
Cheapest I am going here is with Tyler Higbee but, I like the idea of paying up a little here with Andrews, Kittle, or Ertz as mentioned in my stacks.
- Rob Gronkowski – If AB doesn’t play this play looks even better. The Bucs should have no problem with the Jets here and it would surprise no one if Gronk scored twice here.
- Noah Fant – I like Fant for the same reasons mentioned about Sutton. No Jeudy here, and the Broncos figure to have to throw here to keep up with the Chargers. Lock has no problem slinging it but, will the passes be catchable is always the big question.