Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The NFL regular season is officially here! Last year I finished the NFL season with a record of 81-71-4 (53%). In a COVID year, where literally everything was unpredictable and most stadiums didn’t allow fans, I am ecstatic with winning 53%. Now the focus is on this 2021, where home field advantage will actually be an advantage and team personnel will be more predictable. This first week of the NFL, There are a few lines that made massive moves because of injury, but I was able to sniff out the sharp action. As always, good luck to all you degenerates and Bet Goodenough!

Week 1: 5-3-0 (62.5%)

BENGALS +3

  • 70% of the Public is on the Vikings.
  • The line has stayed steady at 3, indicating sharp action on the Bengals.
  • This line may move down closer to game time, as the public starts to follow the sharp action.
  • I would hammer this line at +2.5 as well.
  • 55% of the public is on the Over.
  • The line has moved from 48 to 47.5, indicating some sharp action on the Under.
  • I’d like to see the public 60%+ on the over with this line moving down, as that would indicate stronger sharp action, but I still like the under 48 if you can shop around.

LIONS +9

  • 73% of the public is on the 49ers.
  • The line has moved from 7.5 to 9.
  • This is a line that has moved up and down throughout the week. Early in the week, 80% of the public were on the 49ers and the line stayed steady at 7.5. This tells me there was sharp action early on the Lions.
  • Shop around for the best line asap, this line might move down closer to game time. Book the +9!

GB/NO UNDER 50

  • 57% of the public is on the Over.
  • The line has moved from 50.5 to 49.5, indicating some sharp action on the under.
  • Once again I’d like to see the public on the over 60%+, but I think 50 is a good number. I wouldn’t feel comfortable with anything under 49.5.
  • 83% of the public is on the Rams.
  • The line has moved from 7 to 8 and down to 7.5 throughout the week.
  • The line staying within a point with 83% of the public on one side, indicates there is strong sharp action on the Bears.
  • Shop around with this line as you should be able to get it above 8.

Jets +6

  • 69% of the public is on the Panthers.
  • The line moved from 4 to 6 throughout the week, but has since moved back to 4. This is a big indicator of late sharp action!
  • I placed my bet at +6, but I like this line down to +4.

RAIDERS +4

  • 57% of the public are on the Ravens *still*!
  • Early in the week this line started at 5.5 and has moved down to 4. An indicator of sharp action. After this line movement the ravens lost their last starting running back.
  • I expect this line to move down more as we get closer to Monday night. Book the home dogs at +4.
  • 60% of the public is on the over.
  • This line has moved from 51 to 50, indicating sharp action on the under.
  • I also expect this line to move down closer to Monday night, with the Raven’s running back situation. Book the under 50!

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