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I finished the 7th week of the NFL season with a record of 4-5 (44.4%). I seem to be tracking back in the right direction. Vegas losing money through the last three straight weeks, has really hit my record hard. My betting strategy is looking at line movement and public numbers based on the house(sportsbooks) winning the majority of the time. Which in most years the house will win over 53% of the time. This is why staying disciplined and following the sharp money is the best way to end a year +53%. All it takes is one great week and I we will be cooking!! .. As always, good luck to all you degenerates and Bet Goodenough!

Season Before Week 8: 19-22-1 (46.3%)

Week 8: 4-3-0 (57.1%)

Season After Week 8: 23-25-1 (47.9%)

Key Terms:

  • Sharp (Sharp money) – Someone who knows what they are doing in sports betting. Sharps are informed, experienced, successful sports bettors. They might be professional bettors, but that doesn’t have to be the case. Often sharps place bigger bets. When a sharp makes a bet, the sportsbook will likely take note and adjust a response line.
  • Reverse Line Movement – When a line moves away from the side receiving the majority of bets.

Mia/Buf Under 48

  • 71% of the public is on the Over.
  • This line opened at 49.5 and has moved down to 48.5.
  • With 71% of the public on the Over and the line moving down a point, its an indication of sharp money on the Under.
  • Book the Under 48!
  • 51% of the public is on the Titans.
  • The line has moved from +1 to -3.
  • With just 51% of the public tickets on the Titans and this line moving 4 points in the Colts direction, it tells me there is big sharp money on the Colts.
  • Book the Colts -3,bbut shop around!
  • 68% of the public is on the Over.
  • The line has moved from 46.5, moved to 48, and is now sitting at 46.5.
  • With 68% of the public on the Over and this line coming back down to its opening number, it tells me there is a good amount of late sharp money on the Under.
  • Book the Under 48! I like this line down to 47, but definitely shop around.
  • 63% of the public is on the Over.
  • The line has moved from 44 to 43.
  • With 63% of the public on the Over and this line moving down a point, its an indicator of sharp money on the Under here.
  • Book the Under 43!

Patriots +5

  • 54% of the public is on the Chargers.
  • The line opened at +6 and has moved to +3.5.
  • With 54% of the public on the Chargers and the line moving down 2.5 points, its an indication that there is sharp money on the Patriots here.
  • Book the Patriots +5! I like this down to +4, but shop around.

Broncos -4

  • 66% of the public is on The Washington Football Team.
  • This line opened at -3.5 and has moved up to -4.
  • With 66% of the public on The Washington Football Team and the line moving up a half point, its an indication of sharp money on the Broncos.
  • Book the Broncos -4

Saints +5

  • 60% of the public is on the Buccaneers.
  • This line opened at +4, moved to +5.5, and is now at +4.
  • With 60% of the public on the Bucaneers and this line coming back down to its opening number, it tells me there is a good amount of late sharp money on the Saints.
  • Book the Saints +5! I like this line down to +4, but shop around.

Late Additions:

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